Jan
20
An Oil Prediction
Posted by | Posted in business | Posted on 20-01-2006
THUS SPAKE ZARATHUSTRA:
Oil prices sank by more than $2 a barrel Tuesday to close at $61.66, the lowest settlement since March 21, when it was $60.57. Prices have fallen more than 20 percent from a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14
–NY Times Online, 10/20/2006.
I hereby make a prediction: If prices drop near $55 a barrel, “something” is going to happen that will disrupt/threaten to disrupt the supply of oil, and thereby increase prices. My choices, in descending order of likelyhood:
- The Russian govermnent seizes oil fields or renegs on a contract with an oil company.
- Some major pipeline develops problems, either through neglect or sabotage
- Some oil factory in Africa or the middle east gets blown up/damaged by “terrorists”
- A major disaster befalls one or more US refineries.
Written by Jean Valjean
You sound a little like Mulder.
I’m an insignificant figure in an ongoing government charade, the plot to conceal the truth about the manipulation of the price of oil. It’s a global conspiracy, actually, with key players in the highest levels of power, that reaches down into the lives of every man, woman, and child on this planet, so, of course, no one believes me. I’m an annoyance to my superiors, a joke to my peers. They call me ZARATHUSTRA. ZARATHUSTRA, whose current van gets about 10 miles per gallon, and who now follows the oil market obssesively, shouting to the heavens or to anyone who will listen that the fix is in, that the sky is falling and when it hits it’s gonna be the sh*t-storm of all time.
It seems that even a wind that blows the wrong way is enough to send oil prices up. We are given all sorts of explanations for price increases. And who of us can really the challenge the truthfulness of these explanations? None of us is privy to the real behind-the-scenes calculations that determine oil prices.
The latest drop in oil prices has been attributed to the lack of worldwide turmoil. But is there really an absence of turmoil? Consider the recent bold presentations by Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the U.N.
Wouldn’t these pronouncements by the leaders of oil-rich countries have been enough to contribute to the “fear premiums” that send oil prices up? You see my point. This is the exact type of incident that is used to explain previous increases.
I get the funny feeling we are not being told the whole story.
I think you’re both parnoid schizophrenics.;)The only plot going on here is to rob us all blind, which is the plot of all governments and most charities. I have the feeling that it’s just same old, same old.